FiveThirtyEight has the latest election prediction for Georgia, which is headed for a hotly contested runoff between Democratic nominee Ralph Northam and Republican candidate Ed Gillespie.
The forecast assumes a win for Northam in the final week of the race, a victory for Gillespie, and a tie for the two parties in the November general election.
Here’s how FiveThirtyeight sees it going forward: We think that Gillespie is on a path to victory, given his strength in the state, and we expect that a win by Northam would help the Democrat close the gap in the popular vote to less than 1 percentage point, according to our model.
But Northam needs to keep winning to secure the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.
Given how much he has to work with in Georgia, he’s going to have to play a tightrope act to make sure that doesn’t happen.
Northam will have to continue winning in Virginia, which will have a lot of voters who don’t show up to the polls in November, and he’ll have to keep pulling out big victories in the South and North Carolina as well.
That’s not to say that Gillespie should be complacent, though.
He needs to continue working in a way that appeals to suburban voters who are likely to vote in the runoff, which means he’ll likely have to spend a lot more time in states like Georgia that have large African-American populations, like Georgia’s largest city of Atlanta, where he’s been the incumbent mayor for more than 20 years.
If Gillespie’s campaign doesn’t pick up on the fact that he has a real shot at a win, he may need to make some tough choices to ensure that his support holds.
The final fiveThirtyEight forecasts also look at the outcome of next month’s special election in South Carolina, where Republican Gov.
Nikki Haley is facing Democrat Roy Cooper, who is running for his first term.
The final FiveThirtyElection forecast sees Haley as the winner, with a narrow margin of victory, and FiveThirtySeven gives Cooper a 2.5 percent chance of winning.
Cooper is running a campaign that focuses on the economy and the Confederate flag, and many South Carolinians have been critical of Haley’s response to the Charleston massacre.
If Cooper does win, it’s going the other way, with the outcome in the election very much dependent on who is the Republican nominee.
FiveThirtyEight’s model has Northam winning in the upcoming election, and the model sees a win in the Republican runoff for governor in Georgia in November.
However, FiveThirty Eight doesn’t think the race will be close enough for Cooper to actually become the next governor.
It’s a tight race, and it’s possible that Northam could have a very good showing in the primary.
But if Cooper has a strong showing, it will be very difficult for him to make up ground.
If Northam doesn’t have the support of enough Republican voters to win, and if Cooper does make it to the general election, it would be very hard for Northamphere to get the 270 Electoral College votes needed for victory.